Challenges to national defence in contemporary geopolitical situation

The paper examines the economic determinants of military modernisation within the Central Northern European Military Mobility Area (CNE MMA) from 2010 to 2024. Using correlation analysis and linear models for panel data, the paper investigates the relationship between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and expenditures on military equipment and infrastructure across eight member states. Furthermore, the article defines the roles of individual states within the military mobility capability across European territory. A significant contribution of this work, which distinguishes it from existing literature in the field, is the assessment of the specific relationship between economic growth and defence infrastructure investments. While most research focuses on aggregate military spending, this study isolates infrastructure investment as a critical enabler of strategic mobility. The findings reveal a significant infrastructure decoupling in major powers like Germany and Poland, where equipment procurement crowds out infrastructure investment despite rising budgets. Conversely, frontline state like Lithuania demonstrates synchronized spending. The study concludes that current prioritisation of equipment over infrastructure creates strategic risks for rapid force deployment. The primary contribution lies in the disaggregated analysis of dual-use infrastructure within the CNE MMA framework, providing actionable insights for balancing fiscal allocation to ensure logistical resilience in contemporary geopolitical conditions.

Understanding how soil systems respond to atmospheric forcing requires analytical approaches capable of capturing not only instantaneous interactions but also delayed, cumulative, or depth‑dependent effects. In this study, we quantify the lagged response of soil‑moisture sensor to key meteorological variables across six monitoring stations, over the period 2022–2024. The meteorological dataset includes daily series of mean air temperature, total daily precipitation, sunshine duration, mean relative humidity and mean wind speed, while soil measurements represent three vertically installed within the natural soil profile moisture sensors with differing depths and thermal-hydric sensitivities. The resulting lag‑correlation heatmaps reveal that the soil–atmosphere coupling is highly station‑specific, displaying substantial variation in both the timing and the sign of the soil response. This analysis evaluates the instantaneous (lag 0) statistical relationships between daily meteorological variables and soil-profile responses at three depths (10 cm, 50 cm, 90 cm). Using Pearson correlation coefficients, we characterize how near-surface and sub‑surface layers respond to atmospheric forcing without temporal offset. The results confirm that day‑to‑day correlations are weak, especially in deeper horizons, reflecting the inherent delayed propagation of thermal and hydrological signals into the soil profile.

This paper develops a multiplicative model of logistic effectiveness for a Joint Logistic Support Group and explicitly links logistics performance to the fighting power construct used in doctrine. It further expands the intelligence support factor as a composite index that captures both the availability and quality of relevant data, information, and intelligence inputs and the operational performance of intelligence processing that supports the commander’s decision-making. The model also accounts for information-volume effects, recognising that both insufficient and excessive reporting can reduce utility, and it distinguishes between enduring, organic intelligence capability (as part of the physical component of fighting power) and the day-to-day process performance of intelligence processing (as part of the intelligence support factor). Finally, the paper places the model in the context of a continuously changing operating environment, including hybrid threats that can disrupt logistic support and reduce achievable effectiveness. The paper provides definitions and equations, proposes measurable indicators, demonstrates the calculations with a numerical illustration, outlines a calibration approach, and offers practical recommendations for application beyond command-and-control elements at the Joint Logistic Support Group level.

This paper presents a simulation-based decision support approach for artillery target engagement, focusing on the integration of stochastic modelling and reliability-based evaluation into fire planning. Traditional artillery methods rely on deterministic models and consumption norms, which provide limited insight into the variability of fire effectiveness. The proposed approach employs Monte Carlo simulation to model firing accuracy and munition effects, producing probabilistic distributions of target damage. These outputs are evaluated using reliability-based criteria, enabling comparison of firing methods in terms of effectiveness, probability of success, and ammunition consumption. Results demonstrate that optimized firing methods can achieve the required effect (≥30% target damage) with the desired reliability (84%) while significantly reducing ammunition expenditure and exposure time compared to traditional approaches. The study highlights the potential of simulation-based decision support to improve efficiency and decision-making in artillery fire planning.

The construction of water crossings constitutes one of the fundamental tasks of military engineering units. Under combat conditions, such operations are frequently required to be executed within timelines measured in hours. This tempo is enabled by ribbon pontoon bridge systems. Four main structural design concepts can be distinguished among these systems. This paper presents the results of an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) analysis applied to the problem of selecting among this four design concepts, taking into account two distinct profiles of water obstacles.