Generolo Jono Žemaičio Lietuvos karo akademija

This paper examines how digital media discourse influences national security and institutional trust using UK-related data (39,760 mentions; reach 255.3 million) collected between November 2025 and April 2026. Applying AI-assisted media analytics, it identifies key risk patterns, including the dominance of negative sentiment, platform-driven amplification, and the transnational circulation of narratives. The findings show how these dynamics generate structural vulnerabilities for democratic institutions and complicate strategic communication. The study proposes a practical analytical framework for monitoring influence operations, enabling earlier detection of coordinated campaigns and supporting faster, evidence-based policy responses in complex digital information environments today.

This article focuses on modeling the spread of disinformation narratives on social media using the SEDPNR epidemiological model, an extension of the basic SEIR model that takes into account the specifics of digital communication. This includes the existence of a "doubt" phase and the division of active users according to their sentiment polarity. The analyzed data describe a specific disinformation narrative, “Biolabs Ukraine,” that spread in connection with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The results demonstrate that the dissemination of the narrative exhibits characteristics of an infodemic wave: a rapid increase, a brief peak, and a subsequent decline. The analysis confirms the significant role of active users and shows that supportive and critical reactions both contribute to the further dissemination of content.