Generolo Jono Žemaičio Lietuvos karo akademija

This article presents a view and opinion on the methods of applying risk analysis in the Czech Republic, gained through practical experience. Risk analysis is a fundamental building block in the creation of key documents in the field of emergency planning and crisis management, which are an integral part of the security system of the Czech Republic. In risk analysis, an important role is played by determining the threats that most threaten the Czech Republic, and then adopting measures that will reduce the level of risk to an acceptable level. The increasing number of natural and anthropogenic emergencies naturally brings with it an increase in the severity of their consequences. Within the framework of the systematic application of the policy of preventing emergencies and crisis situations, the analysis of threats and the risks arising from them is of key importance. The publication describes the risk analysis methodology, which culminated in the adoption of the document "Threat Analysis for the Czech Republic" approved by Resolution of the Government of the Czech Republic No. 369 in April 2016. The document analysis method was used as the basic research method. This qualitative research method was focused on the analysis of threats in the Czech Republic. At the same time, it responded to the past extraordinary events that are commented on in the publication. The developing trend of research in the field of protection against the effects of CBRN substances was also emphasized. The analysis of documents is limited to the period from 2016 to the present, because the Threat Analysis for the Czech Republic was approved in 2016. The basic question is therefore whether this threat analysis corresponds to the current security situation in the Czech Republic and in Europe. Some challenges and potential shortcomings in this area are pointed out, especially at the level of territorial self-governing units and in the area of legal regulation and legislation. The perspective on new challenges in connection with protection against the effects of CBRN substances, increased risk of terrorism and other extraordinary events causing large-scale violations of the law is also emphasized. In this context, the issue of soft targets is also partially analysed, since the vast majority of similar incidents occur in these facilities. The conclusions from the article and the aforementioned ambiguities should be the subject of expert discussion in the future, and possible legislative revisions should be made in order to ensure systemic efficiency and clear definition of responsibilities both in the area of risk analysis and in the area of subsequent processing of crisis plans and other security documents.

This article addresses the reassessment of security threats to the Czech Republic in light of developments in the security environment since 2015. The aim is to update the evaluation of selected types of threats and to reflect their current characteristics, with particular emphasis on their interdependencies and their capacity to generate cascading effects. To achieve this objective, a semi-quantitative risk assessment model is applied and extended by incorporating a cascading effect coefficient. The results of the risk assessment indicate that cyberattacks, pandemics, floods, and hazardous substance releases constitute unacceptable risks, whereas the remaining assessed threats fall within the category of conditionally acceptable risks. The proposed methodological extension enables a more accurate assessment of interconnected threats. The findings may be applied in risk assessment processes within crisis management.