Challenges to national defence in contemporary geopolitical situation

The objective of this study is to empirically assess the impact of changes in Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) and employment on U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) amid growing geopolitical tensions. The research methodology is based on an ARDL model with short-run dynamics and an error correction term (ECM), with the analysis grounded in quarterly data spanning a 20-year period. The empirical results reveal that employment growth has a strong, immediate positive impact on GDP, whereas the specific impact of China’s TUI on U.S. economic growth manifests only with a three-quarter lag and is minimal in the short term. It was also found that a positive ECM coefficient signals atypical long-term divergence in the macroeconomic system in response to Chinese capital flows. The novelty of the study is grounded in a 20-year time series analysis, which empirically demonstrates that the impact of Chinese foreign capital on the U.S. economy requires a longer adjustment period, while labor market expansion directly stimulates GDP growth in the short term.